1321 posts
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 by Dick84
1 week ago
 Total posts:   5354  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

God I hope these grim scenarios don't play out. Shit is already awful.. dealing with tens of thousands of deaths will be brutal.

 by /zn/
1 week ago
 Total posts:   4945  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:God I hope these grim scenarios don't play out. Shit is already awful.. dealing with tens of thousands of deaths will be brutal.


I know.

And my wife is an RN who works in a facility that cares for elderly (and mostly sick) women.

 by aeneas1
1 week ago
 Total posts:   12394  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

Business Insider wrote:The coronavirus pandemic could claim 81,000 lives in the US by July and overwhelm hospitals by mid-April, according to a new report from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, even with current social distancing measures in place.

if deaths hit 81,000 by july (possible even with current social distancing measures in place according to the article), it would work out to:

- 831 deaths per day for the next 96 days (from today through june 30th).
- 67 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 12 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 108 times the current mortality rate in china.
- almost double the current mortality rate in italy.
- 80 times the current global mortality rate.
- 5,634,592 confirmed cases in the u.s. (1.7% of the u.s. population) assuming the current u.s. deaths per confirmed cases ratio.

mortality rate = covid-19 deaths as a % of population.

Business Insider wrote:IMHE acknowledged that there's a lot of uncertainty in its estimates. The number of US deaths could range between 38,000 and 162,000 by July, the group said.

if deaths hit 162,000 by july (possible even with current social distancing measures in place according to the article), it would work out to:

- 1,672 deaths per day for the next 96 days (from today through june 30th).
- 135 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 24 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 216 times the current mortality rate in china.
- almost four times the current mortality rate in italy.
- 161 times the current global mortality rate.
- 11,269,184 confirmed cases in the u.s. (3.4% of the u.s. population) assuming the current deaths per confirmed cases ratio.

Business Insider wrote:Other researchers have predicted anywhere from 200,000 to 2.2 million deaths in the US by the end of the year.

if deaths hit 200,000 - 2.2 million by the end of the year it would work out to:

- 714 to 7,857 deaths per day for the next 280 days (from today through december 31st).
- 166 to 1,831 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 30 to 185 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 266 to 2,934 times the current mortality rate in china.
- 4 to 50 times the current mortality rate in italy.
- 200 to 2,196 times the current global mortality rate.
- 153,138,301 confirmed cases in the u.s. (46.6% of the u.s. population) assuming the current deaths per confirmed cases ratio.

 by aeneas1
1 week ago
 Total posts:   12394  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

like many counties, marin has adopted an eviction ban that i'm sure will help/save many at the moment, but of course this doesn't forgive rents, only postpones them (free of interest), and once this thing is finally behind us, and months of rent come due, it's going to be incredibly tough for many to pay the piper, or even catch up, given the astronomically high pricing for residential and commercial rents in the sf bay area, scary times indeed.

On March 24th, the Board of Supervisors adopted a resolution to prevent evictions until May 31st for both residential and commercial tenants that are unable to pay rent due to COVID-19. This resolution applies to all cities, towns, and unincorporated areas of Marin County. We will be monitoring the current situation and we will extend the deadline should COVID-19 continue to adversely affect our community.

 by aeneas1
1 week ago
 Total posts:   12394  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

u.s. now tops the list of countries with the most confirmed cases, just passed china, of course the u.s. also has the third largest population in the world.

 by azramsfan93
1 week ago
 Total posts:   640  
 Joined:  Jun 30 2015
United States of America   Arizona
Veteran

aeneas1 wrote:u.s. now tops the list of countries with the most confirmed cases, just passed china, of course the u.s. also has the third largest population in the world.


Personally, I don't believe the numbers coming out of China, and I really don't believe the numbers coming out of Iran. Also, for perspective, our numbers should be compared with the EU overall not individual countries.

That said, the USA's numbers are climbing because the amount of testing we are doing, in addition to the inevitable spread.

 by azramsfan93
1 week ago
 Total posts:   640  
 Joined:  Jun 30 2015
United States of America   Arizona
Veteran

Excellent analysis. I don't see where they come up with these numbers. Given that, it smacks of fear mongering.

aeneas1 wrote:if deaths hit 81,000 by july (possible even with current social distancing measures in place according to the article), it would work out to:

- 831 deaths per day for the next 96 days (from today through june 30th).
- 67 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 12 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 108 times the current mortality rate in china.
- almost double the current mortality rate in italy.
- 80 times the current global mortality rate.
- 5,634,592 confirmed cases in the u.s. (1.7% of the u.s. population) assuming the current u.s. deaths per confirmed cases ratio.

mortality rate = covid-19 deaths as a % of population.


if deaths hit 162,000 by july (possible even with current social distancing measures in place according to the article), it would work out to:

- 1,672 deaths per day for the next 96 days (from today through june 30th).
- 135 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 24 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 216 times the current mortality rate in china.
- almost four times the current mortality rate in italy.
- 161 times the current global mortality rate.
- 11,269,184 confirmed cases in the u.s. (3.4% of the u.s. population) assuming the current deaths per confirmed cases ratio.


if deaths hit 200,000 - 2.2 million by the end of the year it would work out to:

- 714 to 7,857 deaths per day for the next 280 days (from today through december 31st).
- 166 to 1,831 times the current mortality rate in the u.s.
- 30 to 185 times the current mortality rate in new york
- 266 to 2,934 times the current mortality rate in china.
- 4 to 50 times the current mortality rate in italy.
- 200 to 2,196 times the current global mortality rate.
- 153,138,301 confirmed cases in the u.s. (46.6% of the u.s. population) assuming the current deaths per confirmed cases ratio.

 by aeneas1
1 week ago
 Total posts:   12394  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

azramsfan93 wrote:Personally, I don't believe the numbers coming out of China, and I really don't believe the numbers coming out of Iran. Also, for perspective, our numbers should be compared with the EU overall not individual countries.

That said, the USA's numbers are climbing because the amount of testing we are doing, in addition to the inevitable spread.

the hardest numbers to accept are those coming out of india, with a population of 1.3 billion - 724 confirmed cases, 17 deaths.

 by azramsfan93
1 week ago
 Total posts:   640  
 Joined:  Jun 30 2015
United States of America   Arizona
Veteran

aeneas1 wrote:the hardest numbers to accept are those coming out of india, with a population of 1.3 billion - 724 confirmed cases, 17 deaths.


Having been to India 10 times in my work I can testify that the Indian government is one of the least effective and most poorly organized I have ever seen. Their ability to test their population is seriously in doubt.

 by PARAM
1 week ago
 Total posts:   4654  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Superstar

Has anybody read any reports on Russia? What are the numbers there? Of course we probably can't trust those, just like we can't trust the Chinese numbers but was just wondering.

Nevermind. Found it.

March 27: 3 things you need to know today
Russia confirmed 196 new coronavirus infections on Friday, bringing the country’s official number of cases up to 1,036 and marking the largest one-day increase in cases so far. It also said one person had died in the past 24 hours, taking the total number of deaths to four.

Russia will suspend all regular and charter flights to other countries starting today.

President Vladimir Putin has declared that the week from March 28 to April 5 will be a nationwide paid holiday to encourage Russians to stay home and slow the spread of the virus. All restaurants and cafes have been ordered to close during this time with the exception of delivery services.

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1321 posts Apr 03 2020