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 by PARAM
1 year ago
 Total posts:   5117  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

max wrote:That was a lot of draft capital to put into one basket that came with valid risks.


They all come with valid risks. Some more so than others

 by Dick84
1 year ago
 Total posts:   6610  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

max wrote:That all true.

And as long as they trade up using the same value chart that they trade down they are making efficient use of the draft process.

I wonder how much crapping out on the GRob pick affected Snead. That was a lot of draft capital to put into one basket that came with valid risks.


I still say Fisher was the driver of that.
I do think it's kinda funny... some people I see on forums want to blame all the previous mistakes on Snead and give McVay for all the current success.

I tend to think Snead is getting better at his role, and has a coach who knows what he wants and how to communicate it and that they get great results together.

 by aeneas1
1 year ago
 Total posts:   13392  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

max wrote:That all true.

And as long as they trade up using the same value chart that they trade down they are making efficient use of the draft process.

I wonder how much crapping out on the GRob pick affected Snead. That was a lot of draft capital to put into one basket that came with valid risks.

i wonder just how much the rams reference the value chart during draft day? heck, look at kupp, 1/5 the "value" of ross (245 vs 1,350), and last i heard the bengals were already trying to dump ross.

 by max
1 year ago
 Total posts:   3877  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   New York Metro
Superstar

aeneas1 wrote:i wonder just how much the rams reference the value chart during draft day? heck, look at kupp, 1/5 the "value" of ross (245 vs 1,350), and last i heard the bengals were already trying to dump ross.


Cherry picking at its best

 by Dick84
1 year ago
 Total posts:   6610  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

max wrote:Cherry picking at its best


Oh. Okay.

Let's see how they did with their other third rounder that year. Or second rounder.. or 4th rounder.

 by Dick84
1 year ago
 Total posts:   6610  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

I'm sorry... 4th rounderS.
2 ++ level starters... 1 solid starter.. 1 part time starter.. 1 high rotation player.

Without a first rounder.

 by max
1 year ago
 Total posts:   3877  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   New York Metro
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:Oh. Okay.

Let's see how they did with their other third rounder that year. Or second rounder.. or 4th rounder.


Whats your point?

Yes, they had a wonderful draft 2 years ago. Good drafting teams do that. But no one gets it right all the time. No one does better long term with 3rd and 4th rounders than 1st rounders.

Over time, an average drafting team will do better with first rounders than a good drafting team does with 3rd and 4th rounders. To imply anything different is foolhardy.

 by Dick84
1 year ago
 Total posts:   6610  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

max wrote:Whats your point?

Yes, they had a wonderful draft 2 years ago. Good drafting teams do that. But no one gets it right all the time. No one does better long term with 3rd and 4th rounders than 1st rounders.

Over time, an average drafting team will do better with first rounders than a good drafting team does with 3rd and 4th rounders. To imply anything different is foolhardy.


No...
But if you draft really well consistently... it sure takes the edge off the occasional bomb.
And.. If you're drafting well in mid rounds... those are less expensive.. makes the occasional trade for an expensive difference maker much more palatable.

 by aeneas1
1 year ago
 Total posts:   13392  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

max wrote:Cherry picking at its best

not cherry picking, question asking, i wonder how much the rams reference the value chart on draft day?

your the gm and you don't need a franchise qb - would you swap your 5th overall pick for all of the draft slots the rams got in 2017 or would you say "screw that deal, my 5th overall is "valued" at a whopping 725 more points than all of the rams slots (1,700 vs 975)"? would you expect the rams to throw in a first rounder too, in the 25th range, along with those 7 picks, because then the "value" would even?

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 by PARAM
1 year ago
 Total posts:   5117  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

max wrote:…….But no one gets it right all the time. No one does better long term with 3rd and 4th rounders than 1st rounders...…….

Over time, an average drafting team will do better with first rounders than a good drafting team does with 3rd and 4th rounders. To imply anything different is foolhardy.


I don't know about that Max. The Rams haven't done better with 3rd and 4th rounders, they've done without first rounders 3 years running. Snead is batting about 4 for 7 on first rounders (2012 to 2017), 5 of 7 if you count Ogletree. 3 for 6 with 2nd rounders (4 for 6 if Everett breaks out which is on the high side). 4 for 8 on third rounders (allowing either Jamon Brown or TJ McDonald being one of those). He's only 3 for 8 on 4th rounders (but they came in 2016 and 2017). I didn't count 2018 or 2019 drafts....too early.

But the approach seems to be unless there's a real stud AND you're picking in the upper half of the first round, it's better to trade out and accumulate multiple 2nd's, 3rd's or 4th's. I heard Polian claim that the hit % on first rounders league wide is only about 60% and it hasn't changed for decades. In the second it's a little less and lesser still in the third.

However, if a staff is good at identifying talent in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th it makes sense to trade out and gather more of those picks. And Snead seems to be pretty good at it. Hell if Everett and Rapp turn out well, he'll be 5 of 7 in the 2nd which is 10% higher than NFL first round success (and that would be over 8 years).

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89 posts Jul 14 2020