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Purdy: Rating the potential outcomes of Raiders' stadium quest

By Mark Purdy

Anybody who claims that they know how the Raiders' stadium saga will end -- and when it will end -- is drinking delusion juice laced with shots of Throwing-Darts Brandy.

The truth is, no one knows exactly how this whole thing will turn out. Including the NFL itself.

But in my view, there are five possible outcomes for what happens with the Raiders and Chargers and Rams, all of whom seek a move to Los Angeles. I'll rank those outcomes in order of probability, from most likely to least likely:

The Rams move to Los Angeles while San Diego and Oakland stay put, at least for a while.

In my four decades of covering the NFL, I have gleaned one important rule: The richest guys usually get their way. Stan Kroenke, proprietor of the Rams, is worth more than $5 billion and is the league's second wealthiest owner behind Seattle's Paul Allen.

Kroenke wants to shift the Rams franchise from St. Louis to a proposed stadium he has enough money to build on the former site of Hollywood Park Racetrack in Inglewood. Kroenke would prefer to be there by himself initially. And despite the NFL's huge ego, there are measured voices within the league who wonder if bringing two teams simultaneously to market in Los Angeles is such a terrific idea.

Two sudden teams would mean selling twice as many tickets and club seats and suites, dumping a lot of inventory out there at once. A safer choice would be to award just one team to Los Angeles and test the waters to gauge the area's true pro football demand before adding a second franchise.

Rams move to Los Angeles and are forced to take one other team as a joint tenant.

In this vision, the Rams and either the Chargers or Raiders hit town together -- at the Hollywood Park site that seems more equipped to be done sooner -- and turn Los Angeles instantly into a two-team town with the full force of the NFL's marketing machinery.

But the question is, would the league give Kroenke the right to choose that team? (My guess: Yes.) And which franchise would become the second team? (My hunch: Chargers.) And would the other team then be a strong candidate for a move to St. Louis, where the city has assembled a seemingly realistic stadium package in hopes of keeping the Rams? (My deduction: Yes.)

Raiders and Chargers are given the green light to build their stadium in Carson, while Rams stay put in St. Louis.

This possibility does not rank as high as the previous two simply because the Carson deal contains more moving parts. The stadium site is a former landfill, and an environmental cleanup is under way but not complete. There are also bureaucratic hurdles to traverse by setting up a stadium entity, a separate stadium authority and Goldman-Sachs financing. None of this is insurmountable. But in California, building any sports venue is difficult. Surprises always surface.

Also, please approach with caution the words of Carmen Policy, the former 49ers executive serving as point person for the Carson effort. Policy is an awesomely smooth talker and intelligent negotiator. But he also has been the carnival barker for three previous failed NFL stadium deals -- for a new 49ers venue at the Candlestick site (scuttled by Eddie DeBartolo's legal troubles in Louisiana); for a previous Los Angeles effort on a Hollywood Park stadium involving the Raiders (dropped when Al Davis decided to return to Oakland); and for a 49ers stadium at Hunters Point in San Francisco (rejected in favor of Santa Clara). More than anyone, Policy knows there are no sure things.

The Chargers get a new stadium deal done in San Diego, bow out of Los Angeles quest; Raiders then face option of joining with Rams in Los Angeles, continuing to play in Oakland or moving elsewhere.

It sure doesn't seem as if the Chargers have a future in San Diego. But let's say they get a stadium deal done there. This leaves Oakland owner Mark Davis in a pickle. He was an equal partner in the Carson project. Would he agree to become a quasi-tenant of Kroenke at Hollywood Park? Or would Davis think of a move to St. Louis or San Antonio? He has publicly said St. Louis wasn't a good fit for the Raiders. And San Antonio would have to construct an NFL stadium.

Rams and Chargers move to Los Angeles. Raiders stay in the Bay Area at Levi's Stadium or a new Oakland stadium.

Stop laughing. Oakland does not appear capable of getting its stadium act together. But there's always hope. And you know what might hustle up any effort among East Bay politicos? The Raiders playing in the South Bay.

It's strange, the utter disdain Davis has shown for the idea of splitting home dates at Levi's Stadium with the 49ers, even on a temporary basis. Geographically, the venue is actually closer to Oakland than San Francisco. And the 49ers' contract with Santa Clara already provides the financial parameters for a second team.

Would Davis really rather share a stadium in Southern California instead of one amid the NorCal Raiders followers that he professes to love? Davis could announce a plan to play experimentally at Levi's for two or three years, giving Oakland more time to come up with something, and thus remain portable for the next potential move.

Those are my rankings. I'll stick by them firmly until at least next week. Because the way it's going, the ultimate outcome could easily be none of the above. Enjoy the drama! There's more to come.

Read Mark Purdy's blog at blogs.mercurynews.com/purdy. Contact him at mpurdy@mercurynews.com. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/MercPurdy.