[PARAM]

The perception that this guy was drafted too high and that guy "slipped" down low is based on what? The multitude of draft "experts" who rank these players, each one somewhat different from the others? We don't know how the 32 different draft boards in the NFL are set but we get an idea once they start drafting. Tutu Atwell was drafted waaaaay early right? #27 WR on NFL.com. Though I've seen him ranked #14 and #21 in two different publications. The Ravens took the #32 CB in the 3rd round. The Vikings took the #56 CB in the 3rd round. According to the particular ranking (NFL.com) the Rams got the #10 CB in the 4th round!

I am by no means a talent evaluator. I have a job and too many other things going on to put much effort into it. But I do know there aren't many "experts" who see things exactly the same way. Just like the 32 teams in the NFL. In addition to our draft picks we signed some players who were deemed draft-worthy. Alaric Jackson and Paris Ford. Jackson was ranked the #24 OT in the draft and Ford the 33rd safety. Max Roberts was the #25 Edge rusher.

Why were guys passed over? #17 WR Tamorrion Terry had knee surgery in October and went undrafted. Sammy Watkins cousin Austin went undrafted. He was deemed by some a mid round pick. It's a conundrum.

We go by subjective rankings by "experts" and treat them like fact. This guy was drafted too high or why did we not take that guy? It's a theory as anchored as a cloud in the wind.

How will our draftees (and UDFA's) perform once they get to camp? How many will make the team? How many will contribute something? Following the NFL is a lot of fun because you just never know. But we shouldn't be as anchored as we sometimes seem based off of subjective rankings. I trust our staff because they have been doing this in L.A. for 4+ years and have delivered quite well. If I were a Jet fan, maybe I wouldn't be so calm.

[snackdaddy]

Every team has their own board based on how they see the talent. Some of it is strictly evaluating talent. Some of it is need. But its their board based on the work they put in. You get these draftniks who have a different board and start making claims like reach or steal because of how their own board is set up. No way anyone can know who was right today.

It takes a few years to know if a draft class works out. If a team does poorly with their evaluating the coach and GM will probably be out of job after a few years. If they do well, they get extensions and more money. Until they're no longer doing well.

[Elvis]

The whole thing is kind of whacky.

On the one hand people say you can't evaluate a draft for 3 years, that grades are ridiculous. And to some point that's true but you don't get to draft 3 years from now, you have to draft now.

And there's a whole scouting department, analytics, film analysts, doctors, all doing real work to try and get it right.

If it was an unknowable crapshoot, why not just draw names out of a hat?

It's not an exact science and it's not a crapshoot. That's just the way it is. It's like poker. Good players win more than bad players but nobody wins all the time and nobody loses all the time. It's a matter of percentages.

We have all these Twitter GMs doing their own boards and on the one hand you wanna say, cool, i appreciate your work and that you're sharing. But then they start making ridiculous proclamations based on their own board and, are these people high?

Like this guy:



He did some work, he shared it, cool.

But c'mon man...

[PARAM]

First round is less a crap shoot than the rest. But if you miss on a guy you take in the first round, it's more costly than 2 through 7. Both salary-wise and the waste of a first round pick. It's the reason I like what these guys have done. They get a proven NFL star for their first round picks. Always. No development needed. Plug and play, literally.

But it's impossible for fans to do the research of each and every prospect like NFL teams do. They'd need a staff (like NFL teams) not to mention access to the players, their former coaches and team mates. Since they can't do that to the level NFL teams can, calling out those teams is kind of silly. WTF do they really know?

That's why I have to shake my head when I read, "they turned down getting a starting center for the next 5 years". Or "they could have had him in the 4th round". There's just no way to know. If it were that easy, then every pick would be a hit barring injury.

[max]

The whole thing is kind of whacky.

On the one hand people say you can't evaluate a draft for 3 years, that grades are ridiculous. And to some point that's true but you don't get to draft 3 years from now, you have to draft now.

And there's a whole scouting department, analytics, film analysts, doctors, all doing real work to try and get it right.

If it was an unknowable crapshoot, why not just draw names out of a hat?

It's not an exact science and it's not a crapshoot. That's just the way it is. It's like poker. Good players win more than bad players but nobody wins all the time and nobody loses all the time. It's a matter of percentages.

We have all these Twitter GMs doing their own boards and on the one hand you wanna say, cool, i appreciate your work and that you're sharing. But then they start making ridiculous proclamations based on their own board and, are these people high?

Like this guy:



He did some work, he shared it, cool.

But c'mon man...

He’s a young overexuberant fan. I take him as just being very passionate about his opinions. Actually, I get a kick out of some of these kids. They say stuff like “I had a 6th round grade on Atwell.” I think that was his buddy Jake. So funny. I met those 2 guys at the Rams game in NY in 2017. Cute kids.