[aeneas1]

I don't have/know the numbers but I'm fairly sure the further passes fly the lower the percentage of completion. So the fact Goff is completing such a high percentage may be a result of defenses expecting/defending more rigorously, the shorter passes. McVay may be creating a better opportunity to complete those longer passes by calling all those shorter ones. What is Brees' annual percentage of longer passes?

yep, depth of pass average typically impacts completion rate, brees always ranks high in completion rate because he throws short so often, and often books among the lowest depths of pass averages in the league, bradford finished first in completion rate in 2016 with the vikes after booking the lowest depth of pass average of the year among the 36 qualifying qbs, and now goff is well above his completion average of past years and ranks 4th highest headed into week 6, while sporting the lowest depth of pass average in the league.

and, yeah, the (relative) rarity of throwing deep most likely increases completion success rate given the element of surprise, altho the likelihood of sustaining a 70% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards in the air is of course pretty unrealistic!

20+ air yard attempt rankings /
completion % of 20+ air yard attempt rankings:

31 / 1 - brees
27 / 2 - goff
28 / 3 - newton
25 / 4 - fitz
22 / 5 - rivers

then you have guys like

30 / 12 - tannehill
29 / 10 - jones
26 / 17 - bridgewater
21 / 30 - haskins
23 / 24 - minshew

[CRamsFly]

mcvay's new short passing game has been interesting to watch unfold and, as i mentioned earlier in the season, it seems clear that it was installed (at least in very large part) to protect the oline and goff in pass pro, i.e. to put the oline in a position to succeed... looking at goff's average depth of passes thru the years, it's impossible not to realize that the deeper averages of previous years no doubt required more time from the oline.

the category that's seen the biggest increase is passes behind the line of scrimmage - only two teams (lac and car) have thrown behind the line of scrimmage more often the rams this year, the rams rate is 21.4% vs a league average of 15.4%, comparatively the browns and dolphins rates are at 6.5% and 9.6% respectively.... i would say mcvay's insistence on trying to get the screen game working this year, with mixed results, has driven the behind the line of scrimmage pass rate up in 2020.

here's a look at the rams numbers since mcvay has been hc - passes blos are up 32% in 2020 vs previous years while passes of 20+ yards are down 36%, passes of 11-19 yards are down 13%, and passes of 11+ yards are down 20%.

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all of this said, i'm not trying to frame mcvay's change in offensive philosophy this season as a negative, not at all, instead i'm just pointing it out - i'm from the school of whatever the hell works! btw, goff has been nails this season on passes of 0-10 yards, his completion rate on such passes is 84.5%, the highest of his career, and good for 2nd highest headed into week 6.

Agree with you 100% - it's good to be able to take what the defense gives you, short or med or deep passing, plus sticking with the running game to keep the defense honest. I also like the higher variety of run plays, not only a stretch-zone but pulling guards, TE at FB, shotgun draw plays, and of course the jet sweep, etc. In addition, if the short passes lead to plenty of YAC, who cares how many yards the pass is in the air? A 20-yard gain is a 20-yard gain, regardless of how many yards the pass was in the air. In fact, it would be better to have a 5-yard pass and a 15-yard YAC vs. a 20-yard pass and a 0-yard YAC, since the completion % should be higher on the 5-yard pass. If the defense starts taking those short passes away, guess what? The Rams can also pass deep.

However, one play that I think the Rams should keep away from for the next 2-3 more games is the screen pass, unless the defense is pass-rushing aggressively and giving us those plays (like the Cowboys).

[aeneas1]

In addition, if the short passes lead to plenty of YAC, who cares how many yards the pass is in the air? A 20-yard gain is a 20-yard gain, regardless of how many yards the pass was in the air. In fact, it would be better to have a 5-yard pass and a 15-yard YAC vs. a 20-yard pass and a 0-yard YAC, since the completion % should be higher on the 5-yard pass.

yep, and the rams lead the league in both yac per completed pass and yards per pass attempt, in fact the rams' league leading yac per completed pass average of 6.5 is 50% higher than the league average of 4.3.

here's a look at league numbers for 2019 - the block on the right shows how completion rates of course drop as depth of pass increases and how interception rates increase - but tds per pass attempt also increase as depth of pass increases... the block on the left shows contribution percentages so, for example, passes thrown in the 1-5 yard range accounted for 31.7% of all pass attempts, 18% of all picks, 34.4% of all tds, and 23.5% of all pass yards.