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 by PARAM
2 months ago
 Total posts:   5080  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

Lots of talk about how to make the playoffs. It's a given you have to do well inside you division if you want to win it. And if you win it, then you're in the postseason. With that in mind, I looked at McVay's record in the NFC West and it's impressive, despite just going 3-3 this year. Total record is 13-5. The Rams have dominated the Cardinals (6-0), dominated the Seahawks (4-2) and split with SF. One caveat on SF. We are just 3-3 against them but that week 17 matchup in 2017 with Mannion and practically every other backup starting was a gift.

But here's the tale of the tape including the first game of 2017 to the last in 2019:

Seattle (4-2) L, W, W, W, L, W
San Francisco (3-3) W, L, W, W, L, L
Arizona (6-0) W >>>>>>W

Per game average of rushes-yds, comp- att- yards and totals for TD passes, Int and Sacks

Seattle's offense
29-148 rushing, 18-29 for 173 yards passing // 12 TD - 3 Int - 22 sacks
Rams offense
29-149 rushing, 23-37 for 282 yards passing // 8 TD - 6 Int - 7 sacks

San Fran's offense
29-122 rushing, 20-32 for 239 yards passing // 9 TD - 11 Int - 22 sacks
Rams offense
20-118 rushing, 20-31 for 205 yards passing // 11 TD - 1 Int - 8 sacks

Arizona's offense
18-74 yards rushing, 19-33 for 174 yards passing // 4 TD - 8 Int - 22 sacks
Rams offense
34-149 rushing, 25-36 for 284 yards passing // 10 TD - 3 Int - 8 sacks

Pretty impressive IMHO. We have recorded 22 sacks against each opponent and allowed 8. The passing numbers are bad vs SF and even with Mannion's removed aren't spectacular. Good pass rush there, though they have only got to Goff 8 times, 4 in 1 game. We have failed to sack a division QB in just 1 game, the 2017 finale against SF. We've held those 3 teams sackless (4) or without multiple sacks (7) 11 times. We've not had multiple sacks against them 4 times.

Average offensive points per game:
Seattle 20, Rams 29
San Fran 27, Rams 28
Arizona 9, Rams 30

Clearly the new arch rivals are the old arch rivals. Two young head coaches, two good offenses. Now we just have to get back on par defensively to match up better with them.

 by snackdaddy
2 months ago
 Total posts:   6726  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

SF is greatly improved over previous seasons. Seattle has consistently remained a playoff contender. Arizona seems to be trending upward. And we don't look to be the Superbowl caliber team we were in 2018.

What will 2020 bring? I really don't know. But I have a hard time believing we will be worse than 2019. Aside from Gurley, our offense returns intact. While it wasn't the same offense from the previous two seasons it was certainly formidable enough to be a playoff contender. And how hard will be to replace Gurley's 2019 production? Not to mention its not only possible the line will be better, its more probably. There will be more experience this time around.

I think SF had a good route to the Superbowl. They played two teams at home that were definitely flawed. They now know their franchise QB is not that all world guy they thought they were getting. They shipped out one of their pro bowl defensive linemen. I think they have a chink in their armor now.

If anything, I expect them to come back to the pack. That pack is Seattle and LA. Arizona is still a year away in my opinion. Seattle has the best QB in the division. SF had the best defense for the first 2/3 of the season. But that defense took a step back. I think it will be a tough 3 team race. Whoever gets the upper hand in head to head will have the advantage.

One other thing, how often does a guy who had Jimmy GQ's injury remain relatively injury free after that? One has to wonder if that won't be a problem at some point.

 by PARAM
2 months ago
 Total posts:   5080  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

All good point Snack.

snackdaddy wrote:SF is greatly improved over previous seasons. Seattle has consistently remained a playoff contender. Arizona seems to be trending upward. And we don't look to be the Superbowl caliber team we were in 2018.


Shanahan has made SF into a formidable team. I think it's great. A return to the 80's when SF and the Rams enjoyed a heated rivalry. Hopefully it turns out differently this time around. You question their QB and I'm in agreement. They passed less than 30 times a game. He completed 69% of them @8.36 per attempt. They ran more than 31 times a game @ an average of 4.6.

They played solid defense, finished #2 in the NFL but their last 5 regular season games, when they were playing for the #1 seed weren't spectacular.

They allowed 580 rushing yards on 139 attempts (4.2)
They allowed 1201 passing yards (241 per game), 120 of 189 with 12 TDs and only 1 Int with just 4 sacks
They allowed 141 points (28+ PPG).
And they went 3-2. They won those 3 games by 2, 3 and 5 points.
So their numbers weren't near their numbers from their first 11 games (10-1).

The question is, can Garapolo win games with his arm? As long as he's got Kittle and Deebo Samuels, he's got a good shot.

Seattle is nowhere near as good as they had been. As long as they have Wilson, they've got a shot. And they use that 3 headed monster run game. Their defense is not that good.

Arizona is going to be interesting in 2020. I don't know what to expect but Hopkins is going to help Murray for sure.

 by ramsman34
2 months ago
 Total posts:   4075  
 Joined:  Apr 16 2015
United States of America   Back in LA baby!
Superstar

It’s like the 80s. Except this time our QB is more like Montana and theirs mor like Everett.

Ok that’s a stretch but I have Covid19 induced stay at home pre insanity symptoms

 by JackPMiller
2 months ago
 Total posts:   1273  
 Joined:  Sep 22 2016
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Pro Bowl

What helps us, we have a weak schedule. We play the AFC East, & NFC East this season, and the Bears come to LA. Chicago is not a real good team on the road. At worst, I feel we should go 2-4 in the division.

 by PARAM
2 months ago
 Total posts:   5080  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

JackPMiller wrote:What helps us, we have a weak schedule. We play the AFC East, & NFC East this season


How does that help us anymore than it helps SF, Seattle and Arizona? We can't be any worse than 4-2 in the division this season if we expect to make the postseason.

 by JackPMiller
2 months ago
 Total posts:   1273  
 Joined:  Sep 22 2016
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Pro Bowl

PARAM wrote:How does that help us anymore than it helps SF, Seattle and Arizona? We can't be any worse than 4-2 in the division this season if we expect to make the postseason.


I don't know how we are going to win 4 in this division. It is really good. 3-3 is the best, I believe we can do. Of course, injuries and luck can play a big part of it as well. I'm going on even par. I believe with our weak schedule, we should have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I can see three teams from the NFC West making the playoffs. It will be a battle between us and the Cardinals.

 by PARAM
2 months ago
 Total posts:   5080  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

JackPMiller wrote:I don't know how we are going to win 4 in this division. It is really good. 3-3 is the best, I believe we can do. Of course, injuries and luck can play a big part of it as well. I'm going on even par. I believe with our weak schedule, we should have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I can see three teams from the NFC West making the playoffs. It will be a battle between us and the Cardinals.


Well injuries and luck are a possibility for all teams. Depends on who gets the luck and who gets the injuries (and how significant). SF, Seattle and the Cardinals play the exact same schedule as the Rams except for off conference divisional games. Head to head changes it cause you can't play yourself.

SF plays GB (13-3) and the Saints (13-3)
Seattle plays Minnesota (10-6) and Atlanta (7-9)
The Rams play Chicago (8-8) and Tampa (7-9)
Ariz plays Detroit (3-12-1) and Carolina (5-11)

There are differences but just 2 out of 16 games. So do we have a 2-0 leg up? On who? Or is it a 1-1 wash. And with which teams? If it's worse, we're in trouble. The schedule is only different in strength of schedule based on 2019. A lot of things change from year to year and though that strength may be one of them, it probably has less impact than luck and injuries.

JMHO.

 by RedAlice
2 months ago
 Total posts:   5170  
 Joined:  Aug 07 2015
United States of America   San Diego
Hall of Fame

JackPMiller wrote:I don't know how we are going to win 4 in this division. It is really good. 3-3 is the best, I believe we can do. Of course, injuries and luck can play a big part of it as well. I'm going on even par. I believe with our weak schedule, we should have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I can see three teams from the NFC West making the playoffs. It will be a battle between us and the Cardinals.


I see the Cards as being much better than many expect, so agree with your last sentence.

 by actionjack
1 month ago
 Total posts:   1280  
 Joined:  May 19 2016
United States of America   Sactown
Pro Bowl

PARAM wrote:Well injuries and luck are a possibility for all teams. Depends on who gets the luck and who gets the injuries (and how significant). SF, Seattle and the Cardinals play the exact same schedule as the Rams except for off conference divisional games. Head to head changes it cause you can't play yourself.

SF plays GB (13-3) and the Saints (13-3)
Seattle plays Minnesota (10-6) and Atlanta (7-9)
The Rams play Chicago (8-8) and Tampa (7-9)
Ariz plays Detroit (3-12-1) and Carolina (5-11)

There are differences but just 2 out of 16 games. So do we have a 2-0 leg up? On who? Or is it a 1-1 wash. And with which teams? If it's worse, we're in trouble. The schedule is only different in strength of schedule based on 2019. A lot of things change from year to year and though that strength may be one of them, it probably has less impact than luck and injuries.

JMHO.


Injuries in particular are huge. But these two games were one of the reasons SF had the edge last year. How important is one game!? I rather the Rams face the Bears and Bucs (even with the douche) than Saints and Packers for sure. This could be the difference, as I dont think we can expect much more than 3-3 vs our division.

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10 posts May 30 2020