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 by /zn/
2 days ago
 Total posts:   4914  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Superstar

/zn/ wrote:Every single medical person or scientist who works on infectious disease I have read (and it's a lot at this point) says that all our efforts are blind unless we can test.


Just to expand on that. Here's another example:

Dr. Rob [email protected]
As an ER doc trying to treat patients who may have COVID-19, I can't underscore enough how much harder the lack of testing is making our job. Yes we're used to making life-or-death decisions with limited information, daily. But this scenario is very different. Here’s why:

For us data is everything. Board Certified Emergency Physicians (ER docs) are trained in pattern recognition & rely on research to know when the preponderance of evidence directs us toward one or another path of treatment that could significantly help or harm our patients.

With COVID-19, we doctors have very little evidence-based data on the basic science of transmissibility, incubation period or even what measures would be taken to protect patients (& providers). Our best evidence? What has occurred in China, South Korea & Italy thus far...

But the difference with these other countries with COVID-19 is that at the earliest point possible, a huge testing regime was used to determine the extent of the virus in the hospitalized “very sick” population & the "walking well” less-sick population. We don't have that.

Because this novel #coronavirus causes such minimal symptoms in so many young people (including children) -- as well as in older people at the onset of disease -- we're not able to determine cases based on symptoms. This is how we managed the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003.

SARS had a case-fatality rate of 10%, but the ability to ID cases early & isolate them significantly, limited its spread and kept fatalities relatively low. By contrast, COVID-19 cases are difficult to ID early above the background level of other respiratory viruses.

During the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009, the case-fatality rate was 0.1%, slightly higher than seasonal flu. That's also ~50% less contagious than COVID-19. The point? With a highly contagious virus that's difficult to diagnose clinically, early testing is critical.

...initial attempts to make our own test failed. As a result, as an ER doc I can't get most patients tested. And it's now known that the virus has been here for several weeks.

To get a patient tested, they have to have traveled to certain countries, had direct contact with a COVID19+ patient, or be ill enough to be hospitalized & have no other diagnosis. There's no way around it: Tests are being rationed

Right now we're not truly defining the extent of the virus in communities. Short of a complete lockdown,we're dependent on everyone exercising caution when they have even minor symptoms, to avoid infecting those most at risk of dying (elderly & those with chronic disease).

The only path forward is a massive testing regime ID’ing relatively healthy individuals who are infected.Only then can containment stop the spread in communities. And perhaps the more "walking well" positives we get, the more we can convince people that the threat is real.


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 by Elvis
2 days ago
 Total posts:   24742  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

Elvis wrote:If you guys really wanna talk about Trump and politics, start a thread in general discussion and have at it.

But not here.


Hey looks like PARAM already started one:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12247

 by river
2 days ago
 Total posts:   103  
 Joined:  May 04 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Practice Squad

Just ordered my tombstone :

Image

 by /zn/
2 days ago
 Total posts:   4914  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Superstar

Matt [email protected]
BREAKING: United States has reported 14,312 new cases today. This is the most cases detected by any country in a single day since the pandemic began, breaking the single-day record set yesterday by the United States (14,024 cases). U.S. now has more cases than any other country.

 by Dick84
2 days ago
 Total posts:   5282  
 Joined:  Oct 29 2015
Italy   LA Coliseum
Hall of Fame

US just passed 1200 deaths.

 by snackdaddy
2 days ago
 Total posts:   6436  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

dieterbrock wrote:As the leader of the USA facing a global pandemic like nothing ever seen before, and an economy teetering on the brink of complete disaster, how is this a bad thing??


People have different interpretations of the things he says and how he says it. When he says "I'd love to end it by Easter", I take it as sure he'd love it. We all would. But I don't take it as him saying its gonna end and it will be back to business as usual. But apparently many people do take it like that. I have a feeling when Easter comes around he'll know it can't be done and we have to continue this path we're on.

 by aeneas1
2 days ago
 Total posts:   12336  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

numbers from the last hour or so, keep waiting for the shoe to drop on california, especially sf and la, hanging (relatively) tough so far... the "last day w/ 0" column (far right) shows the last each state reported 0 deaths, and the number of dats that have elapsed since.

zz01.png

zz02.png

 by aeneas1
2 days ago
 Total posts:   12336  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

the u.s. compared to some other countries at the moment:

z01.png


the 20 countries that have performed the most tests through 03/20:

z02.png

 by snackdaddy
2 days ago
 Total posts:   6436  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

river wrote:Just ordered my tombstone :

Image


Mine will say "Here I lay. I expected it to happen. It did."

 by DirtyFacedKid
2 days ago
 Total posts:   659  
 Joined:  Oct 28 2016
United States of America   El Segundo
Veteran

AvengerRam wrote:I doubt we'll ever really know how many people in China were infected.

Here's a question... does anyone personally know someone who has tested positive? Just curious. I, for one, do not.


Yes and another who has now died.

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989 posts Mar 28 2020